Centenary Novices Handicap Chase

The Centenary Novices Handicap Chase was introduced into the Festival in 2011 replacing the old Jewson Novices Handicap and also switching to the first day of the Festival. The new Jewson race is now a championship race off level weights for novices over 2m 5f.

Centenary Novices Chase Trends

7/7	finished in the top five on all their completed starts over fences
7/7	were officially rated 123-139
7/7	were aged five to eight
7/7	finished either first or second on their last outing
6/7	had won no more than once over fences

Centenary Novices Chase Analysis

We will continue to use the old Jewson Chase trends but we should remain aware that the new race will now be raced on a different part of the Cheltenham course and as such is over a slightly shorter distance of two and a half miles as opposed to 2m 5f.

The handicap ceiling has also moved down to a maximum of an official rating of 140 so be aware of that when making your selections as up to 2010 there was no upper ceiling and this may change the viability of the existing trends.

The second stat in our table looks very significant as any horse with a much higher rating than 135 could well be vulnerable to a horse whose true handicap mark has not yet been fully exposed.

The offical ratings band of 123-139 of the seven winners is further compressed over the last six years where all six winners have been rated in a 7lb window between 132-139. This very tight rating band may even itself out over the next few years but horses in this rating category will definitely be worth considering.

The unexposed nature of winners of this race is further emphasised by the fact that six out of the last seven winners had won no more than once over fences thus leaving plenty of scope for improvement.

Centenary Novices Chase Last Seven Winners

Table below shows the last seven winners of the race, their age/weight at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).

Year	Horse	Age/Wgt	Trainer	Jockey	Price
2011	Divers	7-11-4	F Murphy	G Lee	10/1
2010	Copper Bleu	8-11-0	P Hobbs	R Johnson	12/1
2009	Chapoturgeon	5-10-11	P Nicholls	T Murphy	8/1
2008	Finger On The Pulse	7-10-12	T Taaffe	B Geraghty	9/1
2007	LAntartique	7-10-11	F Murphy	G Lee	20/1
2006	Reveillez	7-10-11	J Fanshawe	AP McCoy	9/2F
2005	King Harald	7-10-4	M Bradstock	M Batchelor	9/1

Centenary Novices Chase Preview and Tips

This race is likely to have a very tight look to it now that the race conditions have changed and the whole field are likely to be very closely matched. So one of the old trends where we were looking for a horse with less than eleven stone has definitely gone out the window as every horse in last year's race carried more than that amount.

The existing trends may not be as significant as in recent years due the changes in race conditions but 2011 winner Divers still ticked most of the boxes so it will still be prudent to look for a horse who has more to offer the handicapper.

All eyes will probably be on the horse Ferdy Murphy lines up for this race following his two wins in five years but it could pay dividends to focus instead on the main Nicky Henderson representative as that stable have now had the runner-up three times in seven years. Also, keep a look out for anything from the Nick Gifford yard who have managed to get a couple of horses placed from a relatively small string.