Neptune Novices Hurdle

by Darren Brett
Formerly known as the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle and before that, the Royal and Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle this is a grade one race over 2miles 5 furlongs for novices.

Neptune Hurdle Trends

10/10	were aged five or six
9/10	finished first or second last time out
9/10	started in the first six in the betting
9/10	had NOT run at the Festival before
9/10	had already won over at least 2m 4f over hurdles
8/10	finished first or second on all completed starts over hurdles
8/10	had contested pattern races
8/10	started career in Irish point-to-points or bumpers
8/10	had won at least 50% of all their runs over hurdles

Neptune Novices Hurdle Trend Analysis

Looking at recent winners of this race, a five or six year old with recent good form and at odds of 20/1 or less is what we should be looking for. Easy!

This is a great race for trends lovers with only Massini Maguire's victory in 2007 going against the majority of the above trends.

We should be looking for a young hurdler who has already proved themselves in a good class race and has hopefully never finished outside of the first two placings in their races.

In addition to the above it is worth noting that the Challow Hurdle winner has a very poor record in this event.

Also that Irish hurdlers have won 50% of the last ten renewals.

Neptune Novice Hurdle Last Ten Winners

Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).

Year	Horse	Age	Trainer	Jockey	Price
2013	The New One	5yo	N Twiston-Davies	S Twiston-Davies	7/2
2012	Simonsig	6yo	N Henderson	B Geraghty	2/1F
2011	First Lieutenant	6yo	M Morris	D Russell	7/1
2010	Peddlers Cross	5yo	D McCain Jnr	J Maguire	7/1
2009	Mikael DHaguenet	5yo	W Mullins	R Walsh	5/2F
2008	Fiveforthree	6yo	W Mullins	R Walsh	7/1
2007	Massinis Maguire	6yo	P Hobbs	R Johnson	20/1
2006	Nicanor	5yo	N Meade	P Carberry	17/2
2005	No Refuge	5yo	JH Johnson	G Lee	17/2
2004	Fundamentalist	6yo	N Twiston-Davies	C Llewelyn	12/1

Neptune Novices Hurdle Tips

It may pay to stay away from horses who have been at the Festival before when looking for the winner of the Neptune - only one of the last ten winners had raced at the Festival before - this is probably as this race tends to go to later maturing novices and is in stark contrast to a number of other races in Festival week.