Neptune Novices Hurdle

Formerly known as the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle and before that, the Royal and Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle this is a grade one race over 2miles 5 furlongs for novices.

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Neptune Hurdle Trends

10/10were aged five or six
9/10finished first or second last time out
9/10started in the first six in the betting
9/10had already won over at least 2m 4f over hurdles
9/10had contested pattern races over hurdles
8/10 finished first or second on all completed starts over hurdles
8/10started career in Irish point-to-points or bumpers
8/10had won at least 50% of all their runs over hurdles
8/10 had NOT run at the Festival before

Neptune Novices Hurdle Trend Analysis

Looking at recent winners of this race, a five or six year old with recent good form and at odds of 20/1 or less is what we should be looking for. Easy!

This is a great race for trends lovers with only Massini Maguire's victory in 2007 going against the majority of the above trends.

We should be looking for a young hurdler who has already proved themselves in a good class race and has hopefully never finished outside of the first two placings in their races.

In addition to the above it is worth noting that the Challow Hurdle winner has a very poor record in this event.

Also note that Irish hurdlers have a great record in this race, winning 50% of the last ten renewals.

Neptune Novice Hurdle Last Ten Winners

Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).
2014Faugheen6yoW MullinsR Walsh6/4F
2013The New One5yoN Twiston-DaviesS Twiston-Davies7/2
2012Simonsig6yoN HendersonB Geraghty2/1F
2011First Lieutenant6yoM MorrisD Russell7/1
2010Peddlers Cross5yoD McCain JnrJ Maguire7/1
2009Mikael DHaguenet5yoW MullinsR Walsh5/2F
2008Fiveforthree6yoW MullinsR Walsh7/1
2007Massinis Maguire6yoP HobbsR Johnson20/1
2006Nicanor5yoN MeadeP Carberry17/2
2005No Refuge5yoJH JohnsonG Lee17/2

Neptune Novices Hurdle Preview

It may pay to stay away from horses who have been at the Festival before when looking for the winner of the Neptune as - only two of the last ten winners had previously raced at the Festival - this is probably as this race tends to go to later maturing novices and is in stark contrast to a number of other races in Festival week.

Neptune Novices Hurdle Tip

OLBG member champagnecharlie likes NICHOLS CANYON’s chance in the Neptune:

"I think this is one of the weakest renewals I have seen in a while, but this fella was by some way the classiest on the flat. One minor blip over hurdles but quickly got back on track last time when ridden aggressively. Will be likely ridden up with the pace, I just can't see two horses that can go by him. For that reason he's a knocking each-way bet. Nap."

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