NH Challenge Cupby Darren Brett
A steeple chase over 4 miles for amateur riders only.
National Hunt Chase Trends
|10/10||had ran at least three times over fences|
|9/10||had finished first or second in a chase over at least three miles|
|9/10||had won over at least 3miles (hurdles or fences)|
|9/10||were aged seven or eight|
|8/10||had finished in the first four last time out|
|7/10||had no more than five races over fences|
National Hunt Chase Analysis
Stamina is obviously the key here but the question is how to ascertain if your selection is likely to stay this marathon trip at what is likely to be an early stage of a steeplechase career?
A good stat to concentrate on is when contenders have had form over three miles and further over hurdles as these horses are more likely to translate that stamina from the smaller obstacles to this extreme distance over fences.
Also, look out for a high stamina index in the sire of your selection. For example, the 2009 winner Tricky Trickster was sired by Oscar who has an index of 15.2f. The higher this figure is the greater the influence of stamina. Look for sires around the 12/13f figure or above .
This has become a decent race for favourites with the last three market leaders all obliging
Other information to note is the great records of owner JP McManus (four winners in the race) and of trainer Jonjo O’Neill who has won this race an amazing four times in the last twelve years (as well as also winning the race in 1995!)
On the other end of the scale is the surprisingly poor record of Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls who has managed just one placed horse in the last eleven years from twelve runners.
National Hunt Chase Last Ten Winners
Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds
|2014||Midnight Prayer||9yo||A King||Mr J Newman||8/1|
|2013||Back In Focus||8yo||W Mullins||Mr P Mullins||9/4F|
|2012||Teaforthree||8yo||Rebecca Curtis||Mr JT McNamara||5/1F|
|2011||Chicago Grey||8yo||G Elliott||Mr Derek OConnor||5/1F|
|2010||Poker De Sivola||7yo||F Murphy||Ms K Walsh||14/1|
|2009||Tricky Trickster||6yo||N Twiston-Davies||Mr S Twiston-Davies||11/1|
|2008||Old Benny||7yo||A King||Mr C Huxley||9/1|
|2007||Butlers Cabin||7yo||JJ ONeill||Mr A Berry||33/1|
|2006||Hot Weld||5yo||F Murphy||Mr R Harding||33/1|
|2005||Another Rum||7yo||I Duncan||Mr M OHare||5/1|
National Hunt Chase Preview
Making sure you have a top amateur rider on your selection may seem an obvious statement but the advantage gained by having a one of the more established amateurs on board cannot be underestimated.
A scan of the last ten years shows that the race has tended to fall to the best pilots and one rider in particular is well worth siding with. Top Irish point to point rider Derek O'Connor won the race in 2011 for Gordon Elliott and his overall record in the race makes impressive reading: F142P254.
Eleven of the thirty win and placed horses in the last ten years have come from Ireland but surprisingly only Chicago Grey and Back In Focus have actually won the race for the Irish in the last decade.
The high number of placed Irish horses shows that the lesser known trainers like to target this race and horses from the less prominent Irish yards are well worth a second look. Horses from less well know Irish yards have been placed at 40/1 (twice), 100/1 and 150/1 in the space of the last ten runnings.
The conditions of this race changed four years ago and since then the highest rated horse has won three times. This suggests that we should be focusing on the classier runners rather than trying to find a horse likely to improve for a step up in distance.
National Hunt Chase Tips
The race conditions for the NH Chase have been gradually evolving and the quality of the horse needed to win it has also dramatically improved.
The last change to the conditions was three years ago and since then the highest rated horse in the race has won each renewal.
A tip for this race will be added later in the season.
National Hunt Chase Odds
A full list of the runners and the odds for this race will appear here later in the season.